The US economy has run on cheap oil and cheap foreign money for many years. With the current levels of Dollar dominated indebtedness at all time highs the strain in the system is starting to show. The dollar, standing at $2.05 to the british pound, has continued the steady decline I commented on in October 2004. Since that date that drop has been around 6% against the Euro. Now we are seeing a potential implosion in the US sub-prime mortgage market which will have inevitable knock on effects on the US domestic economy as mortgages are pulled and lives turned upside down.
The overspill into the business sector of the potential funding shortage that may now arise has also begun I believe. Private equity buy outs are facing a shortage of funds as the underwriting banks are still carrying on their books much of the stock they issued for transactions earlier this year. Since Bush was re-elected for the second time, delay of an economic bear market in the US has only been managed by spending lots of dollars on very unpopular wars. The Republicans do not believe theirs will be the next president so the current situation suits them fine.
The Democrats will be handed a Basket economy on the point of implosion and two wars they can neither win, withdraw from or pay for. When I was at Las vegas airport earlier this year a Trucker from New Jersey gave me a light. We chatted as we smoked outside the terminal. “You watch”, he said, “The Democrats are down to a black and a woman for President. The Republicans aren’t gonna let a black or a woman run the show. There will be another major terrorist attack”. I do not believe he is right there. Another terrorist attack would only ensure the Democrats are in for ten years, whomever they chose. Without it they will be in for five, crisis managing through the bear to the beginning of the upside, before a shiny young besuited whiter than white Republican can take over to ride the good times.
Prepare for the bear because it is coming. Luckily we will be protected from the wash to some extent by the trading block of Europe and the trade we have with China and India who are of course leading world growth. But any major remolding of the shape of the US economy will not be without knock on effects. In the UK we can expect inflation up 1 -1.5% over the next two years and interest up 2 - 3 points. At the same time many people are coming off low fixed rate mortgages set five or ten years ago. The effects on consumer spending will be quite significant, slowing growth to near zero for a short sharp spell.
The worst affected will be the same borrowers as in the US: those who are mortgaged at higher rates because they have less resources and lower credit ranks. Oh, and those who own businesses.
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Life, Politics, economics
RT at untwistedvortex.com has been running a logo contest for his blog. Despute the appalling current design scene at freedomforall.net I put pixels to screen for fun. The best fun in the world for me is doing something simple for someone else.
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Website, art
UPDATE: Full story here:
I got really fed up with having a great big white computer box on my desk and wires all over the place. You know the situation: cables and computers are not pretty. There was only one solution: My desk and my computer needed to be merged.
This was not your typical computer maintenance project. I did use a phillips screwdriver - quite normal - but the widespread use of a hacksaw, jigsaw and hammer to get everything in the right place and operational differentiated this project from most rebuilds I have done (lots).
Having managed to get the case cut down to provide a backplate and mounting for the motherboard and PCI devices I then cut out the back of the desk drawer for the cable access. The hammer was widely used throughout this project.
Amazingly I managed to get everything nicely located. Both the DVD drive and CD writer will appear from the front of the drawer. Have yet to cut the slots to locate them. And can’t decide if I want to go to the trouble of getting some matching veneer and giving them a wooden fascia to match the rest.
The old lock on the drawer was removed and the barrel emptied and cut down to become the power button. Locating the power switch behind the lock was easy enough. The main thing was trying to organise all the bits so they would a) fit b) connect with standard cables and c) not cook each other. Currently she is running in the drawer, in the cabinet at 43 degrees C CPU temp - thats low enough for me and only 4 degrees higher than when the beast was in a case.
Time to power up and see if this thing will actually fly. Holy cow she does !!!
Finally I have to do some cabinetwork on the desk she is going in. It’s an old base unit from a large office desk
few more bits to finish: cutting the CD drawer openings, securing the lock barrel to the power switch (don’t try no more nails - I discovered it dissolves the power switch plastic 
) and then I have to cut down the cabinet and rebuild the desk. Nearly done. Will post a pic when the final details are completed.
Just her smoked glass top to come.
Full story of the build here
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Computers, Life, art
Apparantly I have started an “intellectual debate”, with a posting on mentalnurse:
Wow, intellectual debate on Mental Nurse. Somewhat inevitable as I haven`t been around to lower the tone.
I think we are in desperate need of more debate as to the aetiology of mental illness. After all, if we`re not sure about the problem then we`ll obviously struggle with the solution. As I see it, the trouble with TIB`s branch of anti-psychiatry is that it has an almost perverse tendency to drive others into the arms of the medical model, in diametric oppposition to its objective. That`s disappointing for those, like me, who would like to see psychiatry take a bit of a kicking.”
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Childhood Sexual Abuse, Politics Aetiology of Mental Illness, Psychiatry
your body is your sole supply
stop looking to the mind
the mind follows the body
did you think your leg into being?
of course not
your mind realised there was a leg
the mind follows everything
finding feeling in the body
letting go of thoughts in the mind
breathing deep and long and slow
first find all of your body
this may take a very long time
before again turning mind on mind
to untie the final knots that bind
wherein that certain answer that you seek
you will find
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Buddhism, Life, Poems
“It has been my sad experience throughout my career to find that whereas doctors tend to close ranks and look after each other during times of trouble, nurses act in completely the opposite way”. from Life in the NHS, an excellent nurse written blog.
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Life, Medical History
Bees are dying. We may not have enough food in rich countries in five years. We may know hunger. We still do 
not act. The powerful do not lead us because they have everything to lose from peace prevailing and everything to gain from strife and famine. They will have enough food. The meek shall inheret the earth? Not unless they decide to inherit it and do something about it.
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Buddhism, Life, Poverty, economics Bees, dying, hunger, peace, The powerful
There are three small birds
Perched in a tree
In my little garden
Looking At me
One little bird
Flies up in the sky
And circles round the garden
With me in his little eye
The other little birds
Still in the tree
Clean little feathers
And sing happily
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Poems
At last. Finished the poster.
The photographer had six feet. Amazing.
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Life, art
A friend asked me to do a poster. It’s her nephews birthday coming up and they are having a party. I like doing things for other people. Sometimes little things like this. Sometimes other, bigger things. It’s the same family for whom I made arrangements for their cousin to have free reconstructive surgery to free her from the worst effects of having her face burned off with acid. She’s well happy now as she has eyerbrows and lips and can see out of both eyes. Next off they are trying to restore her hearing.
I like doing things for other people because that is the most rewarding feeling in the world for me. To know I have helped. And I like doing things well. I was asked for a poster for a five year olds party … and that is what they will get. 
It’s not quite finished yet. The black paint has to go on the wheels and firebox and coal and roof. Then the carriages to paint. His aunt will stick the words “Happy Birthday X” on the carriages after they are painted, cut out from paper.
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Life, art
