Prediction Update
A fresh look at the two charts with which I made my October 27th prediction shows that Kerry has regained much of the momentum he looked like losing. A summary of the two charts by adding the results of the phrase “bush will win” and “kerry will lose” and plotting this against the reverse ideas is linked below. This chart makes it clear that in the blogosphere there is now a significant and consistent trend away from Bush and towards Kerry over the last week. What happened to change things? Or have they changed?
Osama Bin Laden’s intervention by video yesterday is interesting. It shows that his expected, and one must assume favourite, intervention of a terrorist attack on mainland US soil has not been possible. This should favour Bush as it could be interpreted to mean the Presidents actions have made it thus far impossible for OBL to act in the USA, but the trend reversed before that. In fact I would now expect to see some reversal of the swing towards Kerry because of this, except that both men have handled it equally deftly.
Perhaps it is that Americans, watching Bush over the last week have really come into touch with their feelings that Bush is a liar. Perhaps their moral cowardice is wilting in the light of the actions they intended. Or maybe what I said last week still holds fully true. Well, by the end of the week we will know.
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Haiti
