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USA Election 2004 Prediction

October 27th, 2004 Leave a comment Go to comments

OK, based on two graphs produced using Intelliseek’s BlogPulse Trend Analysis Tool I am ready to make a prediction of the outcome of next weeks US Election.

June 13th 2005: Note these graphs no longer work as they show recent blog activity and not historical activity from the time of the US election.

The graphs are analysis of the phrases
“Bush will win” vs “Kerry will win” and,
“Bush will lose” vs “Kerry will lose”

The first graph shows that Kerry has outstripped Bush consistently in the “will win” stakes in Bloggers Hearts. The second that Bush has outstripped Kerry in the “will lose” stakes until the last four or five days. This should make us fairly confident that Kerry will win. Two facts disprove this in my mind: Firstly, Bloggers are by nature more open-minded, modern and internationalist than the general US population meaning that these results would need to be discounted in any case. Secondly, elections are only lost, never won, and Kerry has outshot Bush over the last few days in the “will lose” stakes and this idea is gaining ground whilst the idea that Bush will lose is declining in appearance.

Unless Bush makes a fundamental error over the next few days that the US population cannot ignore Kerry will lose this Election. It’s unlikely, given Bush’s habit of making them and Americans habit of ignoring them, that this will happen – making Bush the winner. If nothing else, Florida’s new electronic voting system will ensure this is the case.

Based on the particularly rapid shift in the second graph away from Bush losing and Towards Kerry losing over the last 10 days I will add to my prediction that Bush will win by a significant margin. Given the facts that Bloggers think Bush is a liar, Kerry a good man and even that Bush is evil (see earlier post) why is this so? And why aren’t the polls showing this big margin? Simple: “better the devil you know” is what Americans are thinking – but privately – they do not want to admit that they will vote for a bad, even evil, known liar. Big mistake American, your moral cowardice will cost us all dear.

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